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The development comes after an October marked by above-average heat linked to a strong El Niño event, according to the National Centre of Meteorology. NCM statistics place the average monthly temperature at 29.7 degrees Celsius, although actual highs have frequently surpassed 40 degrees Celsius in coastal and inland regions. The weather phenomenon has also raised the prospect of increased rainfall for the month, the authority noted.
According to a forecast published by Emirates 24|7 citing the National Centre of Meteorology, fair to partly cloudy conditions will prevail, with convective clouds likely to form eastward and westward in the afternoon. This setup carries a chance of rain in those areas along with occasional dust. Overnight, high humidity is expected to lead to fog formation in several locations.
The National Centre of Meteorology specifically highlighted the likelihood of fog in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, where humidity can climb significantly during the night. The authority has issued similar alerts throughout the month as humidity levels have remained high. Previous NCM forecasts have noted the potential for mist or fog to form along the western coast. The forecast represents a shift from the recent pattern of highs in the low to mid-40s.
NCM data from past years shows October can bring varied conditions, including a record high temperature of 46.3 degrees Celsius in 2017 and a low of 6.4 degrees Celsius in 2020. The heaviest rainfall in the month occurred in 2016 with 139 millimetres falling in Al Shuwaib, the authority’s historical records show. Fog has also been frequent, with 22 days recorded in 2017.
A Gulf News report citing the National Centre of Meteorology projected slightly above-average rainfall for October, against the long-term average of 5.2 millimetres. This weekend’s expected convective activity fits within that broader outlook for the month. The El Niño is anticipated to sustain these patterns into November, the report added.
The National Centre of Meteorology has stated that the strongest El Niño on record is likely to persist until March 2027, influencing regional weather. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have been 2.3 to 3 degrees Celsius above average, contributing to the high pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula. This has kept temperatures elevated even as the calendar moves deeper into autumn, The National reported.
