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The National Centre of Meteorology has linked the current weather pattern to a surface low-pressure system extending from the south-east and a trough in the upper atmosphere. Meteorologist Dr Ahmed Habib said in an interview with Khaleej Times that the country would see rainfall every day for five days, especially in the eastern parts, with additional showers possible in the north and areas between Al Ain and Abu Dhabi. The expert noted that rainfall had already been observed in the Hatta area on October 20.
According to the Emirates 24|7 report, convective clouds form when warm, moist air rises rapidly, cools and condenses, creating tall, dense cumulonimbus clouds capable of producing heavy showers. These clouds often bring gusty winds, thunder and lightning along with the rain. The unsettled conditions are being fed by moisture transported from the Arabian Sea on south-westerly winds.
The NCM issued an alert on October 21 for convective cloud formation over eastern and southern areas, with the possibility of fresh to strong winds reaching 50 kilometres per hour. Gulf News reported that rain fell in Fujairah on that day, with wet roads and overcast skies captured in videos shared by weather tracking accounts. Additional rainfall was noted in locations including Musaffah, Mazyad and Hatta.
NCM forecasts indicate that convective clouds will continue to develop over eastern areas on October 22 before extending to inland and western regions in the afternoon, bringing a chance of rainfall. Similar conditions are expected on October 23 with clouds over both eastern and western parts of the country. The authority added that the low-pressure system is forecast to weaken gradually toward the end of the week although remaining atmospheric moisture may sustain cloud formation over mountainous areas.
The National Centre of Meteorology has also warned of potential overnight fog or mist in coastal and inland areas during this period as humidity levels rise. Winds are expected to be light to moderate but can strengthen significantly with cloud development, leading to blowing dust that reduces visibility. Seas are forecast to remain slight in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
Recent observations have included hail in some showers, with videos showing hailstones impacting desert areas and creating waterfalls in mountain regions, Khaleej Times reported. The current spell aligns with expectations of above-average rainfall in the UAE during the coming months, a pattern the NCM has attributed to ongoing El Niño conditions persisting into 2027.
